Drew Champlin column: Sun Belt predictions

NEW ORLEANS — It’s time again for Sun Belt Football Media Days this week. Rather than explain the event, we’ll just get started with my conference thoughts.

I see three teams who will vie for the title and all finish with seven or more wins. With two new bowls being added, I also think the Sun Belt will sneak into another bowl spot or two when the major conferences can’t fill their spots.

I’m going away from the trend of picking the obvious winner, as the predicted league champion of the past three years (Troy, UL-Lafayette and North Texas) hasn’t won the league. This year, that team will be Florida Atlantic.

So right now, I see UL-Monroe going 6-1 (with a loss to FAU) and Troy and FAU going 5-2, with Troy knocking off the Owls. I suspect Troy and FAU will fall in other games they probably shouldn’t lose. The middle-of-the-pack teams — ULL, Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee — could challenge, but probably won’t be consistent enough.

I’m no psychic, but normally I get a couple of these things right. My crowning achievement last year was picking FAU second in the league while the coaches picked them seventh, and picking Troy linebacker Boris Lee to the all-conference team. He was nowhere to be found on “official” preseason lists, but was there at the end.

Here are my picks:

UL-MONROE — A senior quarterback and a good sophomore running back led them to a share of the title in 2005, but a loss to Northwestern State led to its 5-6 record and no bowl. They’ve got that this year, and followed the Troy method of replacing starters by reloading through the junior college ranks. There’s talent returning, plus several scheduling breaks with some of the better teams at home.

TROY — This is the team with the least amount of quarterback experience but probably the best offensive and defensive lines and several playmakers on both sides of the ball. It’s hard for me to pick against Troy on national TV at FAU, but right now I can see the Trojans falling at ULM and losing another game it shouldn’t. Then again, if every piece falls into place, the Trojans could run the table in the league.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC — Lots of talent returns as well as coach Howard Schnellenberger. FAU lost a big part of its offense when tight end Jason Harmon went down to injury. It’s as talented, if not more so, than Troy’s team last year that went 8-4 with no bowl. It’s tough for a team to go unbeaten in the league and for some reason, I see the Owls having some tough breaks and not winning the outright title.

UL-LAFAYETTE — Tyrell Fenroy is the league’s best running back. Quarterback Michael Desormeaux is a senior, which counts for something. The best way for ULL to win? Get the offense going early, because Desormeaux won’t scare people with his arm late in the game. He can create plenty with his legs early, though.

ARKANSAS STATE — Good quarterback and running back, and some other good players as well. Same old Red Wolves, though, they’ll win one or two they shouldn’t and lose one or two they shouldn’t and finish in the middle of the pack.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE — I like the way coach Rick Stockstill is building and running his program. But I also think there’s too much youth to contend this year.

NORTH TEXAS — They love them some offense in Dodge City. Right now, there’s not near enough defense to make noise, but the Mean Green are tough at home.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL — It’s really a crapshoot between the Golden Panthers and North Texas for the last spot. For the betterment of the conference, hopefully FIU can take some big strides this year and not get blown out all the time.

All-conference picks: When the league votes come out today, I expect FAU to be picked first, followed by Troy. Look for FAU quarterback Rusty Smith and FAU linebacker Frantz Joseph to be the league’s top preseason offensive and defensive players of the year, though I think Troy’s Lee will snag the defensive award at the end of the year.

Troy players who should wind up on preseason teams are right tackle Dion Small (first team), defensive end Kenny Mainor (first), Lee (first) and safety Sherrod Martin (second). Safeties Sherrod Martin and Terence Moore could be there too as well as offensive linemen Danny Franks and Chris Jamison.

Wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan likely won’t be on a preseason list, but should be on a postseason list. Same with defensive end Brandon Lang.

Drew Champlin covers Troy athletics for the Dothan Eagle.