Migration of Wiregrass conservatives

Jack D. Cook

Wiregrass conservatives comprise a powerful block of voters that can influence any election, primary or general, Democratic or Republican.

This “critical mass” of the Wiregrass electorate can be divided (roughly) into three groups:  Democrats, Independents and Republicans.

These three groups can be likened to three “oil wells” in a triangular configuration, or semi-independent reservoirs of voters, each reservoir contiguous to one other.

The borders between these three groups are not solid rock, but porous, like Swiss cheese.  And voters, like oil, do migrate from one reservoir to another, given the pull of gravity and other forces exerted on them.

Three major forces ultimately shape the “majority mass” that decides the victory in each primary or general election: the gravitational “pull” of the individual candidate; the centrifugal “push” on the voter out of the reservoir due to internal campaign conflict;and the hot-button issues that fire up a sense of urgency among both the active and dormant electorate.

The ideal candidate, like a spinning solar or planetary body, will exert a strong gravitational pull on all voters, siphoning off support from both the Independents and party faithful.  Every party yearns for the rare “star” who can win with 85 percent of the vote.

The ideal campaign will also exert a similar “pull” on voters from other campaigns, particularly if the campaign is upbeat, positive and avoids personal attacks on opponents.  The electorate always favors candidates who are part of the solution rather than part of the problem. As the old proverb says, “Honey always attracts more flies than vinegar.”

On the contrary, any candidate and campaign can inadvertently serve as centrifugal pumps that spin voters out of their own campaigns and down the drain into the camps of opponents, due to the candidate’s unpolished style, questionable decisions, arrogant attitudes, indefensible stands on issues and unethical attacks on opponents.

As that independent voter migrates to either Democratic or Republican candidates, sometimes “splitting their votes” between the two dominant parties, he or she is often joined by disgruntled Democrats and ticked-off Republicans swept up in the migration push to more appealing candidates or to “the lesser of the evils.”

The bitter 1986 Democratic primary for governor between Lt. Gov. Bill Baxley and Attorney General Charlie Graddick is a prime example of these principles.  Both Baxley and Graddick had tremendous appeal — gravitational pull of the likely Democratic voters — until the campaign became so bitter and contested that only a court case could settle the outcome.

By the time of the general election, unknown Guy Hunt reaped the centrifugal force spinoff of the negative and divisive primary campaign between Baxley and Graddick.  Traditional Democratic voters deserted the party, and the rest is history.

Guy Hunt became the first Republican governor of Alabama since Reconstruction, setting the stage for the current makeup of statewide offices and the Alabama judicial seats, mostly now held by Republicans.

But, oh, how the candidates forget. In the 2008 race for the 2nd Congressional District, the bitter Republican primary and even more vitriolic runoff election served as centrifugal motors pumping enough voters out of the Republican tank into Bobby Bright’s camp to send him to the U. S. Congress as the first Democrat from Congressional District 2 in almost 50 years.

Alabama State Sen. Harri Ann Smith reaped the negative results of this centrifugal force when she jumped four-square into the Country Crossing issue, vowing to place a bill in the Alabama legislature to “give the people the vote” on the gambling aspect.

A significant number of her supporters reacted by defaulting to opponent Dr. Craig Schmidtke.  When Smith processed the negative feedback from her haste in placing a bill in the Alabama Legislature, she flip-flopped and decided it was best to “simply let the bill die,” a decision many voters found worse than the previous one. These two choices pumped considerable support from Smith’s voter tank into that of Schmidtke, who almost upset Smith in her own backyard. 

At this point Smith’s “gravitational pull” on her base had severely weakened.  However, she did manage to finish a weak second and qualify for a runoff against Jay Love, a state House member from Montgomery.

  As negative campaigning increased, Love began to lose some of his luster, too.  But despite his gravitational force declining, Love squeaked by with a small margin of victory, enough to challenge Bright in the general election.

Meantime, Bright, son of a Dale County sharecropper, drove his old pick-up truck campaigning throughout the Wiregrass, with a dog riding shotgun.  Bobby kept a keen eye on his swelling voter reservoir, due in part to his “down-home, good-ol’-boy” persona, to a growing number of straight-Democratic ticket voters from Montgomery pledging support, and to a disgusted Republican electorate fed up with negative campaigning. 

While Bright’s charming style and straight-ticket mass would not have been enough to win, Bright got a surprise gift from Smith, who violated Republican Party bylaws by publicly endorsing and supporting Bright. Republican cohesion in the 2nd Congressional District had begun to unravel.

Perhaps Smith’s endorsement made a difference, for Bright did win by around 1,700 votes, which oozed through the porous walls separating the three conservative camps.  Who knows what pushed them or pulled them to migrate? Maybe it was the earlier intrusion into the Republican primary runoff by the Republican Congressional Committee with an endorsement fundraiser for Love.  Maybe it was the dog in the truck. But something worked for Bright.

In retrospect, it certainly appears that there was a greater “centrifugal force” pushing voters away from candidates, through the spongy party borders, than there was “gravitational force” pulling them to the candidates.

In the 2010 Republican primaries, gambling may emerge as another hot-button issue that will “heat up the electorate.  Electronic bingo, as intended for tourist attraction Country Crossing, will likely become a sort of litmus test for all Republican candidates for governor. 

The candidate with a moderate stand on electronic bingo will more likely garner more support than those adamantly opposed to all forms of gambling and who posture as though they would take a fire axe to Country Crossing like federal revenue agents raiding moonshine stills during Prohibition. 

On the Republican gubernatorial ticket, watch for Roy Moore to preach hellfire and brimstone against all gambling. Candidate Tim James has a simple, clear stand: he opposes all gambling. Candidate Bradley Byrne, also not a “gambling person,” offers a reasonable explanation of how the issue will likely make its way through the courts, and ultimately Alabamians may get the chance for a straight up or down vote on gambling.  Byrne’s “come now, let us reason together and respect the law” approach will likely resonate with 70 percent of the voting folks in the Wiregrass area.

When the 2010 elections are over, former Alabama Gov. George Wallace will smile from somewhere up above and say, “In Alabama, most folks vote against a person rather than for the person.”

Jack Cook is a resident of Dothan, and he has been active in Republican politics for several years, working in national, state, and local campaigns.  Jack is a member of the Houston County Republican Executive Committee and the Alabama State Republican Executive Committee.