Bowl game up in the air for Auburn

AUBURN — Four-and-four with four games to play. This wasn’t how it was all supposed to play out for Auburn.

Expected by many to cruise through the SEC West and be worrying about which Bowl Championship Series destination it’d be attending in January, the Tigers have to
break even in November just to be eligible for one of 34 FBS bowl games.

When it all shakes out, it may come down to which pre-New Year’s Eve bowl wants Auburn more: The Petro Sun Independence Bowl or the PapaJohns.com Bowl.

“I never would have thought of this,” defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks said. “Even if we weren’t top 10, even if we weren’t projected to win our side of our conference, I never would have thought we would be in the predicament we’re in now.

“Even when we slid down to No. 21, even when we weren’t ranked, I never would have thought we would be 4-4, just trying to win out to get to a decent bowl game.“

When it comes to the eight non-BCS tie-ins the SEC has, “decency” is subjective. But, for the most part, there is a hierarchy.

How Auburn finishes the season will certainly affect where it’s headed for the holiday season. But remember, the Tigers have to get those two wins first.

If the SEC gets two teams into the five BCS bowl games (one spot is guaranteed; one or more can be snagged in the four at-large spots), a 6-6 record should be plenty to get Auburn into a bowl game. The parity within the SEC has caused that, and there is a possibility that there won’t be enough eligible teams to send to its affiliated bowls.

A win Saturday at Ole Miss may prove essential, as the Tigers wrap up the season at home against Tennessee-Martin and No. 8 Georgia before heading to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 2 Alabama.

“You can’t worry about all of that; you just keep worrying about getting better,” said coach Tommy Tuberville, whose Auburn teams have made a bowl game the past eight seasons. “You don’t worry about wins and losses or who we play, whether it’s on television or whether you’re bowl-eligible. None of that stuff is going to make a difference.

“We’ve never worried about it before, but we’ve just got to take things in stride and worry about what we can control.“

Here’s what Auburn can control, and here are the likely scenarios that will play out if it does, in fact, pick up at least six wins:

If Auburn finishes 2-2, its best-case scenario would be a trip to Memphis, Tenn. for the Liberty Bowl or Nashville for the Music City Bowl the two bowls that get the sixth and seventh selections among SEC teams. The bowls do not make their selections in any specific order, but in consultation with the SEC office.

A return trip to the Chick-fil-A bowl in Atlanta would not be out of the question, but Auburn would need at least two SEC teams to make the BCS and a lot of help.

Its worst-case scenario at 2-2 would be a trip to Birmingham for the PapaJohns.com bowl, the newest SEC-affiliated bowl game that gets the lowest priority. Sandwiched in between that bowl and the Tennessee bowls is the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La. which gets the eighth selection.

A 3-1 finish, which would require a victory against either Georgia or Alabama, would give the Tigers more and better options. Its fate would likely be decided by how the rest of the SEC shakes out, but a trip to Atlanta would be the most likely, followed by the two Tennessee bowls.

If Auburn were to run the table, its worst-case scenario would likely be the Chick-fil-A bowl with its best-case being a trip to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. After the Capital One Bowl makes its selection following the BCS selections, the Cotton Bowl gets first preference among the remaining eligible SEC West teams while the Outback Bowl selects from the East.

Again, even if Auburn were to finish the season 4-0, it’d likely need some help to return to Dallas, where it played in 2007.

All of this, of course, is tossed out the window if the Tigers can’t take care of business Saturday in Oxford.

“I don’t know when the last time Auburn hasn’t been to a bowl game, so we definitely want to go to a bowl game,” quarterback Kodi Burns said. “All the rest of the four are very important, but it starts with Ole Miss.“

SEC teams and where they stand bowl-wise heading into the final month of the season

Locks
Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC)
Florida (6-1, 4-1 SEC)
Georgia (7-1, 4-1 SEC)
LSU (5-2, 3-2 SEC)
Should-make-its
South Carolina (5-3, 2-3 SEC)
Kentucky (5-3, 1-3 SEC)
Maybes
Vanderbilt (5-3, 3-2 SEC)
Auburn (4-4, 2-3 SEC)
Ole Miss (4-4, 2-3 SEC)
Tennessee (3-5, 1-4 SEC)
Forget its
Mississippi State (3-5, 1-3 SEC)
Arkansas (3-5, 1-4 SEC)
(Either Vanderbilt or Kentucky have to make it to six wins because they play each other soon.)

SEC-affiliated bowls and their rank in priority
BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES BOWL
TBD
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Jan. 1; Orlando, Fla.; Florida Citrus Bowl
Teams: SEC vs. Big Ten
AT&T COTTON BOWL
Jan. 2; Dallas, Texas; The Cotton Bowl
Teams: SEC vs. Big 12
OUTBACK BOWL
Jan. 1; Tampa, Fla.; Raymond James Stadium
Teams: SEC vs. Big Ten
(Cotton Bowl traditionally selects an SEC West team while the Outback Bowl has taken from the East)
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Dec. 31; Atlanta, Ga.; Georgia Dome
Teams: SEC vs. ACC
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
Dec. 31; Nashville, Tenn.; The Coliseum
Teams: SEC vs. ACC
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
Jan. 2; Memphis, Tenn.; Liberty Bowl Stadium
Teams: SEC vs. Conference USA
(The Music City Bowl and Liberty Bowl make their selections at the same time in consultation with the SEC office)
PETRO SUN INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Dec. 28; Shreveport, La.; Independence Stadium
Teams: SEC vs. Big 12
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Dec. 29; Birmingham, Ala.; Legion Field
Teams: SEC vs. Big East