A non-partisan poll commissioned by a Washington-based publication shows Republican Congressional candidate Jay Love leading Democratic candidate Bobby Bright, but black voter turnout could make a huge difference.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA and commissioned by Roll Call, a Washington newspaper covering Congressional issues, originally showed Love leading Bright 56 percent to 39 percent in the survey of 622 likely voters taken Aug. 26-28. However, Democrats questioned the accuracy of the poll after learning the black vote was calculated at levels below the 2004 general election.
The poll, according to SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, calculated black turnout at 16 percent. According to exit polling from the 2004 general election, black turnout in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District was 24 percent. Leve said black turnout was calculated at 16 percent because “that’s what we got when we conducted the survey.”
After the poll results were released by Roll Call on Tuesday, Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to “re-weight” the results based on greater black turnout.
According to Leve, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 — within the 4 percent margin of error — if black turnout increases to 27 percent.
“I do not consider the Democrat concerns anything other than fairly voiced,” Leve said. “It's important to understand that there is no way to know which number is closest to the truth, because the truth is hard to know. It is safe to say that depending on what the black turnout is, the Republican will either win by quite a bit, or the race may be very close.”
Leve said blacks historically vote for the Democratic candidate 8-1.
Bright spokesperson Katie Lilley said Bright isn’t concerned about the poll numbers.
“The mayor always tells me he doesn't put much stock in polls,” Lilley said. “He puts stock in the support he feels from the people out in the district, and he is getting so much encouragement from them that it gives us a lot of confidence about where we are.”
Love spokesperson Todd Stacy said the numbers were encouraging.
“It certainly is encouraging to see the numbers reflect the level of support we’ve been seeing for Jay as he travels around the district,” Stacy said. “The only poll that matters is on Nov. 4, and with the kind of support we’re seeing for Jay lately, we’re confident that one will go our way.”
Both camps have commissioned their own polls previously. Each poll showed their camp’s candidate ahead.
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